Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Kassem, expressed confidence during an interview with LBCI on Tuesday night that the ongoing cross-border clashes with Israel are unlikely to escalate into a full-scale war. He suggested that there is a strong possibility, around 90 percent, that the situation will not escalate further. However, he also emphasized that Hezbollah is prepared for the remaining 10 percent, should the need arise.
In the interview on “Kalam Bel Siyasa” (“Political Talks”), Kassem stated that Israel’s perception of Hezbollah’s readiness serves as a deterrent, potentially preventing an escalation. He asserted that Hezbollah has not provoked conflict but highlighted the significant threat posed by Israel. According to Kassem, the persistent threat of war stems from an undeterred enemy.
Kassem reassured that Lebanon is not on the brink of total war, stating that the likelihood of a larger-scale conflict in the country is low. He reiterated that Hezbollah’s current stance is defensive, emphasizing the party’s reluctance to involve Lebanon in a war. However, he emphasized the constant danger posed by a formidable adversary capable of instigating hostilities at any moment.
The importance of early deterrence was underscored by Kassem, who emphasized that it is crucial to safeguard Lebanon’s interests. He claimed that Israeli restraint would benefit all Lebanese people. Additionally, he clarified that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps is not active on Lebanese soil.
Regarding potential ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel, Kassem indicated that no commitments or agreements have been made yet. Despite US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein’s statement that a Gaza truce would not automatically extend to Hezbollah, Kassem expressed a different view. He suggested that if a ceasefire were to occur in Gaza, a similar arrangement could be expected in southern Lebanon. However, he warned that if Israel rejects peace in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah would resist, asserting that Israel cannot dictate terms and would face defeat.
Since October 8, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in daily exchanges of fire, with Hezbollah supporting the Hamas in Gaza. Mediators are currently in Cairo attempting to broker a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, with hopes of extending the truce before the start of Ramadan.
In the realm of politics, Kassem reaffirmed Hezbollah’s support for Sleiman Frangieh as the primary presidential candidate. He stated that Hezbollah is not considering alternative candidates at present, and others must adapt to this decision.
Regarding a recent presidential initiative aimed at ending the prolonged vacancy, Kassem revealed that Hezbollah has not yet provided a definitive response. The initiative seeks to convene all parliamentary blocs for an open session to elect a president, a position vacant since October 2022.
Kassem highlighted Frangieh’s alignment with the political ethos of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and his efforts towards reconciliation and engagement with various parties. He characterized the presidential deadlock as primarily internal and attributed it to a lack of willingness to compromise.
On the strained relationship with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Kassem acknowledged differences in beliefs but emphasized that communication remains open despite disagreements. He asserted Hezbollah’s right to dissent and obstruct the quorum in parliamentary sessions.
Image Credit: Anwar AMRO / AFP
